Trend going back to WWII suggests stocks will hit record highs this month, then struggle in May

CFRA’s Sam Stovall sees stocks hitting all-time highs before April ends.

Futures Now.”

He’s building much of his case on a historical trend dating to World War II.

Stovall notes that 2019 is on target to be the fifth best year-to-date performance through April since the war. But his trend also implies stocks will falter in between May and October. He calculates stocks recorded an average price gain of 0.05%.

“Half of the time the market was lower in that six month period,” said Stovall.

If you zoom in on May alone, the data is even worse. He finds stocks were up just 0.01% of the time.

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